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          首頁 - 活動 - IAER Seminar 2021-6: Timm Prein
          活動
          IAER Seminar 2021-6: Timm Prein

          報告題目:Persistent Unemployment,Sovereign Debt Crises,and the Impact of Haircuts

          報 告 人:Timm Prein

          報告時間: 2021年06月04日(周五)15:30-17:00

          報告地點:騰訊會議(會議ID:737 171 242)

          主辦單位:高等經濟研究院

          【報告人簡介】

          Timm Marc Prein,芬蘭赫爾辛基大學助理教授,2020年獲德國康斯坦茨大學經濟學博士學位。研究方向為國際宏觀經濟學、主權債務、數量宏觀經濟學。

          【內容摘要】

          After 2008, the Southern European economies suffered a strong and persistent increase in unemployment. Rising government bond spreads necessitated the implementation of austerity policies. Austerity however, may increase unemployment. If workers lose human capital during unemployment spells, the economy’s future production potential and thus the fiscal capacities to serve public debt will decline, aggravating a sovereign debt crisis. Debt renegotiations can help to avoid the costs of austerity. I develop a dynamic stochastic model of sovereign debt with long-term debt, endogenous haircuts and skill loss during unemployment to study optimal fiscal policy in sovereign debt crises. In a quantitative exercise, I find that with higher intensity of the skill loss, ex ante, the government issues less debt and the pro-cyclicality of fiscal policy declines. For Portugal, the model predicts debt renegotiations as optimal fiscal response in 2011 with a medium-run unemployment reduction of up to 3.5 percentage points.

          【參會方式】

          騰訊會議  會議ID:737 171 242

          方式一:下載“騰訊會議”客戶端,輸入“會議ID”加入會議

          方式二:點擊參會鏈接加入會議

          https://meeting.tencent.com/s/RvlXaAq5nUNw

          【更多信息】

          獲取更多信息,請掃描下方二維碼加入“IAER Seminar”騰訊QQ群(群號:904 544 292)或微信群,可同時關注高等經濟研究院網站:http://iaer.dufe.edu.cn。

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          撰稿:邊韻煦 審核:齊鷹飛 單位:高等經濟研究院

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